Monday, June 21, 2010

Exclusive: Bike lobby "counts" for Sherbrook exaggerated by 300%

The TGCTS bike count, conducted by Kim the Traffic Reporter from Monday June 14 - Friday June 18, was planned as a 4.5 hour per day rush hour count, or 22.5 total hours. (7-9 AM, 3-5.30 PM)

There were 50 minutes of afternoon time missed due to an interview, and 30 minutes not counted one morning due to heavy rain, so it's a net of 21 hours total for the week of data collection by TGCTS.


By comparison, according to City AT Co-ordinator Kevin Nixon, the bike lobby counted 2 hours per day, a grand total of 10 hours in a week, and their methodology, unaudited or unverified by Nixon or anyone at city hall, involved multiplying their 2 hour count by 5, for a 10 hour daily estimate.

BTTF claimed 1000 ("2000 per day on Sherbrook and Maryland Streets") in their petition to the City Centre Community Committee, or an average of 100 per hour, each and every hour, for 10 hours.

TGCTS did more than twice as many hours of weekly bike count data collection compared to BTTF.

5 DAY COMBINED TOTALS
AM PM Rush hour totals
Bikes on the road: 241 112 353
Bikes on the sidewalk: 92 168 260
Total amount of bikes: 333 280 613
Total amount of vehicles: 12 243 11 101 23 344


* In our count, Sherbrook Street averaged only 70 cyclists on the road -- for the approx 4.5 hour daily of rush hour.


* If we multiplied our results by 2.4 ( to get a 10 hour estimate of daily users, to match the BTTF methodology) , our daily estimate would be 168, or 17 per hour.

And as we only found an average of 17 road cyclists per hour in rush hours, it is very unlikely the rush hour pace would be continued in the off-hours.

100 riders per hour (BTTF) vs. 17 in the TGCTS count.
"1000" riders per day (BTTF) vs 168 in the TGCTS count.

What is wrong with that picture?

If we were to add in the sidewalk riders, which apparently BTTF did not even count, that would be another 260, or 52 per day. Multiplied by 2.4 would give us a 10 hour daily count of sidewalk users is = 125 per day. Many of them were children or area residents who would never use the roadway due to age or infirmity.

Even if we add the 168 road riders with all the 125 sidewalk riders, the total would only be 293 bikes per day, or 703 cyclists less than the bike lobby claim of 1000 bike users on Sherbrook.

It is that claimed figure of 1000 users, a 341% exaggeration, which city officials seem to be relying on to justify spending $228,000 to satisfy the "demand" for a bike lane on Sherbrook.

This is proceeding after failing to consult area businesses, landlords, or residents, or the city bothering to have an accurate bike count to ensure there is a true demand for the service and value for the tax dollars expended.

70 cyclists per day in rush hours, compared to 4670 vehicles in the same time period, means the city wants to take away parking for taxpaying residents and businesses for 1.5% of the road users of Sherbrook, regardless of how it will affect area businesses and hundreds of tenants and residents.

MMM consultants told Belinda Squance of the Ellice Cafe at a special meeting on Friday that the bike counts did not matter. But Mayor Katz told TGCTS that the numbers had to justify the conversion of busy traffic lanes.

The question for Mayor Katz and city council is, even if the user numbers double as a result of adding the bike lane, is it good public policy to disrupt and inconvenience the West End for what would then be 3% of road users --who are commuters and do not spend any significant time or money in the neighborhood?

KIM SAYS:
As I sat at Sherbrook and Ellice by the Ellice Cafe, I noted that the vast majority of those riding on the sidewalks were area residents. Though some commuters did use those sidewalks. In the afternoons, many of the riders on the sidewalks were kids.


On Wednesday, I finally saw a couple of cyclists stop at the Ellice Cafe, I even watched them handcuff their bikes to a tree, yup it was the Police. The only cyclists (other than residents) I've seen stop in at the Cafe.

I also took note that on everyday including the inclement weather on Friday, there were FAR more cyclists on Ellice travelling in both directions than had been on Sherbrook. Though I did not do a count, I can say that I saw cyclists, commuter as well as residents more often than I did on Sherbrook.

Each morning there is a group of 2 to 4 gentlemen who get together for breakfast, none of these people live in the West End, in fact one of the men with whom I spoke (he has a mint condition 1955 Studebaker) said he had been coming to the Ellice Cafe since it first opened
. I did not see ANY of the commuter cyclists either during the morning or afternoon stop in at the Cafe or any of the local businesses. It would also appear that the Ellice Cafe is a very safe place to be at about 8:30 in the morning, the Police were there every morning I did my counts.

This study was done in 5 minute increments, breakdowns are available for time as well as which side of the street/sidewalk was travelled by the bike riders.